When Trump revealed his peace plan for Gaza in late September, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair was the only name put forward as a potential member of a proposed “board of peace”, with the US president saying Blair was a “very good man”.
By October, Trump’s tone had cooled: “I’ve always liked Tony, but I want to find out that he’s an acceptable choice to everybody,” he said.
Weeks later, Blair has been dropped from the board due to opposition among Arab and Muslim nations, according to a report from the Financial Times.
The former leader of the UK has a long and chequered history of intervention in the Middle East, defined for many by his decision to back the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Britain's participation in the invasion – which it justified via false claims that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction – saw many in the Arab world and across the UK brand Blair a war criminal.
Blair has refused to apologise for invading Iraq but has admitted “mistakes”, and that the conflict may have contributed to the rise of the Islamic State group across the Middle East.
His potential role on the Gaza peace board came after Blair spent more than a year discussing peace plans with the US via his think tank The Tony Blair Institute, including conversations on turning the coastal territory into a “Trump Riviera”.
Under the final draft of the peace plan, Blair sitting on the “board of peace” would mean militant group Hamas ceding governing authority in the Palestinian enclave to his “transitional administration” until the Palestinian Authority was in a position to “securely and effectively” take over.
The suggestion drew an incredulous response. “We’ve been under British colonialism already,” Mustafa Barghouti, the general secretary of the Palestinian National Initiative told the Washington Post. “He has a negative reputation here. If you mention Tony Blair, the first thing people mention is the Iraq war.”
"It is no surprise that Tony Blair faced such heavy criticism for his appointment, given his appalling human rights record in the Middle East,” added Jonathan Purcell, head of communications at the International Centre of Justice for Palestine, an organisation that works to support Palestinians’ rights.
A ‘flawed’ plan
According to the Financial Times, Blair may not be ousted from the peace project altogether. Instead, he may serve on an executive board due to his popularity among the American and Israeli diplomats – and perhaps his peace-making credentials.
During Blair’s time as prime minister, he was instrumental in brokering the Good Friday Agreement which in 1998 ended a bitter and violent sectarian conflict that had plagued Northern Ireland for decades.
The 20-point Gaza peace plan that Blair helped to devise – which has been approved by the UN Security Council – is ambitious. It aims to end Hamas’s rule in Gaza, demilitarise and rebuild the enclave under international supervision and normalise relations between Israel and the Arab world.
Read moreUN approves US plan authorising international stabilisation force in Gaza
But critics say the plan lacks elements that made the Northern Ireland agreement successful, largely as there has been no input from Palestinians and it does not address their right to self-determination and sovereignty.
“It has no proper timeline and process for Israeli forces to be withdrawn from Gaza,” says Ben Jamal, director of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign activist organisation. “It says nothing meaningful about the ongoing occupation of Gaza before October 7, 2023, and zero about the ongoing occupation of the West Bank.”
“Blair is a figurehead of everything wrong with Trump's 20-point plan, but the reality is that it is flawed from top to bottom,” adds Purcell. “Peace with justice is totally unrealistic with Palestinian self-determination being cast aside in favour of 'development opportunities' and US hegemony.”
‘An envoy without a mission’
As prime minister, Blair publicly backed the creation of a Palestinian state and advocated for Palestinians to choose their own leadership.
But, despite the rhetoric, “he did very little to show proactive support to build a peace in relation to Palestine that was built on justice and respect for international law and the rights of the Palestinian people”, Jamal says.
Since he left office, Blair has failed to make an impact in the region despite being appointed special envoy to the Middle East in 2007 to help mediate talks between Israel and Palestine on behalf of the Quartet representing the UN, US, European Union and Russia.
The position, which he held for eight years, was limited.
“During that period, he was very much an envoy without a mission,” says Amnon Aran, professor of international relations at City St George’s University of London. “He was mainly focusing on civic issues, and especially infrastructure, but he never managed really to make any major political breakthroughs, partly because the climate was completely against it.”
As special envoy, he declined to push back against against issues that eroded the rights of Palestinians, such as Israel’s expansion into the West Bank.
“He made no secret his close alliance with the Israeli government,” says Jamal. “He’s never shown any desire or motivation to address the dynamics of power for Palestinians or to support measures of accountability that hold Israel to account through international arenas.”
Read more‘No suggestion of democracy’ in US plan for future governance of the Gaza Strip
“Changes on the ground have shown to Palestinians that Blair’s words won’t be followed up with any measures,” adds Amnon Aran, professor of international relations at City St George’s University of London. “If anything, the Palestinians have seen the prospect of a viable state disappear.”
Critics also say Blair also used his influence as special envoy to cash in on his connections in the Middle East at the expense of peace efforts.
During his tenure, he took on lucrative positions as an advisor to investment bank JP Morgan and Swiss insurer Zurich and set up a consultancy agency advising wealthy clients such as the Kuwait government.
In Gaza, he pushed profitable deals for companies that were clients of JP Morgan – including Qatari-owned mobile phone company Wataniya Telecom and oil and gas multinational the BG Group, raising concerns of a crossover between his diplomatic and business endeavours.
Blair’s business interests, which he has gone to lengths to hide from the public, have provided him with an estimated fortune worth tens of millions of pounds.
‘A tarnished legacy’
Blair’s involvement in the next steps of Gaza’s peace process could provide yet another opportunity for the former statesman.
“Playing a role in turning Gaza from its current destruction into a place that people could live, and that would be the first step towards a Palestinian state, could balance out this very tarnished legacy that Blair has attached to his name following Iraq,” says Aran.
But his participation or removal from the project is, ultimately, unlikely to improve prospects for long-term peace, says Jamal. “The issue really isn't about Tony Blair and his participation. There's a fundamental flaw in the whole setup. Everything that's happening at the moment is being sold on the premise that we have a functioning ceasefire.”
Read moreHamas says no second phase for Gaza ceasefire until Israel ceases 'violations'
The first phase of the US-brokered ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave has faced delays and accusations that both sides have repeatedly broken the terms.
Israel’s military operations in Gaza have resulted in the deaths of at least 376 Palestinians since the ceasefire took hold on October 10, according to Palestinian health officials.
Israel has defended its strikes as a response to attacks against its soldiers or people getting too close to the area it controls, though a number of those killed have been women and children and some strikes have occurred in the “safe zone", according to Palestinian health officials.
Now, the key players, including Israel, Hamas, the US and other nations, are to move to a far more complicated second phase that could reshape the Middle East.